This is my fifth macro crisis
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• The bubble burst in 2022. This was necessary • Recalibration started in H2 2022 and will continue through 2025 as companies run out of runway and VC’s have to raise their next funds. Insider rounds and recapitalizations happening everywhere • Overall assets allocated to VC are shrinking • Exits (aka liquidity for LPs) are way down • Capital efficient growth, path to profitability • Default alive, default dead, default investable
Current Reality
Governance is back
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• Non-arms-length transactions, side hustles, and self-dealing are major red flags
Valuation is important
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• Focus, simplify, prioritize – subtract not add. PMF
• Founders need to maximize optionality
• Fundraising is back to 2018/19 analogue – time, DD, size of round, etc.
Great time to be a founder
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Bubble behaviour again – AI, Crypto
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